📈 2024 Stock Market Rewind

The top 7 stories of 2024 and what analysts are predicting for 2025...

TOP STORY
📈 Stock Market Rewind: The 7 Top Stories of 2024

🎄Merry Christmas and an early Happy New Year to you all! I hope you had a restful holiday break with your family and loved ones! 😊

🎆 With 2025 just around the corner, rather than my typical deep dive into the top stories of the week, I want to take a second to look back at the wild time we’ve had this year with a little ‘Stock Market Rewind’ - breaking down what I think were the top 7 most interesting and significant stories of 2024…

But first up, let’s take a look at how the indexes stacked up for the year… 🥁 🥁 🥁

  • S&P 500: +25.9%

  • Nasdaq 100: +29.8%

  • TSX: +18.8%

  • Bitcoin: +114.7%

👏 Overall, it was truly an exceptional year! If we ranked the returns of the S&P 500 over the past 25 years, 2024 would rank 5th - continuing on the momentum from the impressive 24% returns we saw in 2023…

😬 Interestingly, Wall Street Analysts’ predictions for 2024 at the end of 2023 weren’t even close - with a median target of only $5,000 for the S&P - only a 5% gain. It’s surprisingly hard to find these old predictions on Google, but luckily, we have the Weekly Buzz archives to the rescue:

💡 With the S&P 500 ending the year at around $6,000, as you can see, even the most optimistic forecasts were way off, serving as an important reminder that for the short-term, analysts' forecasts for the market at large are essentially meaningless. Or, as Investing.com puts it:

It's that time of the year when analysts make predictions for the S&P 500 index using crystal balls and setting targets. As is often the case, these forecasts end up being detached from reality and, consequently, quite inaccurate.

Investing.com

🔮 So, instead of worrying about what analysts are saying for 2025, take the time to make sure your portfolio is aligned with your long-term goals and resilient to short-term swings!

🤿 With that out of the way, let’s dive into the Stock Market Rewind and the 7 Top Stories of 2024:

1) 🤖 Nvidia’s Meteoric Rise and the AI Boom

🥇 Kicking off our list at an easy number 1 is Nvidia’s meteoric year.

📈 Up 246% this year and 2,719% over the past 5 years, Nvidia ($NVDA) has been the leader in the AI boom that has dominated the market and is the central pillar driving the impressive returns across the tech sector.

🏈 Every one of Nvidia’s earnings reports is referred to as the ‘Super Bowl’ for investors as the whole market hangs in the balance - relying on Nvidia to hit and surpass increasingly lofty earnings targets.

And surpass them Nvidia has, with the company growing revenue 94% since last year and crushing earnings again and again:

  • In Q1 Nvidia beat expectations by 9.5%

  • In Q2 Nvidia beat expectations by 10.7%

  • In Q3 Nvidia beat expectations by 5.4%

But the real reason Nvidia gets the number 1 spot is for it’s insane influence on the market as a whole. In the words of Fortune:

Nvidia is carrying the S&P 500 like no company since possibly IBM four decades ago… it’s unheard of”

Fortune

📈 According to Investopedia, Nvidia - which is now ~7% of the S&P 500 - single-handedly drove a whopping 25% of the S&P 500’s total gains this year. Beyond its direct influence, Nvidia has also had a major influence on the impressive returns of the Mag 7 tech stocks which have grown to 1/3 of the total index (up from <10% just 10 years ago)

😅 All this has led many to joke (and accurately so) that the market is essentially being held up by Nvidia - and looking forward to 2025, Nvidia’s performance will no doubt continue to have a massive over-sized impact on the market overall.

Before we get into the next 6 top stories, a quick word from this week’s sponsor BMO Asset Management!

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🎆 The ‘New Year, New Me’ of Investing

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TOP STORIES OF 2024
📈 Stock Market Rewind Continued

2) 🦅 Trump’s Victory and the ‘Trump Pump’

Next up on the list is none other than Trump’s election victory, which has been called the ‘greatest political comeback in American history.’ But this one doesn’t make the list for the politics - the Trump victory has an insane impact on the stock market - with the S&P posting it’s greatest post-election jump in history (at +2.5%).

With expectations of de-regulation, the victory led to big jumps across Banks, Oil & Gas, Tech, and Crypto, and last but not least: Tesla.

3) 🎢 Tesla’s Rollercoaster Ride

Tesla ($TSLA) and Elon Musk were the gifts that kept giving for the Weekly Buzz, with 9 of the 52 Weekly Buzz Top Stories focused on the company. To see what I mean by ‘rollercoaster ride,’ take a look at the Weekly Buzz titles:

  • Jan 12: 🚘 BYD Speeds Past Tesla in the EV Race

  • Jan 28: 🚘 Tesla Tumbles, Dropping 12% after Q4 earnings

  • Mar 17: 🚘️ What's going on with Tesla?! (down 34% YTD)

  • July 7: 📈 Tesla Surges 26% After Deliveries Report

  • July 28: 😰 Tesla Down 10% After Earnings, Its Biggest Slump Since 2020

  • Oct 6: 🥊 Broadcom Knocks Tesla Out of the Magnificent 7

  • Oct 13: 📉 Tesla Crashes 9% After a Disappointing Robotaxi Event

  • Oct 27: 🚀 Tesla Rallies 23% After Its Second Best Day in History

And last but not least…

🤖 At the start of the year, Tesla’s narrative was dominated by concerns over rising Chinese competition and disappointing delivery numbers, but in the latter half, Elon worked hard to shift the narrative to the Robotaxi and Optimus Robots with the long-awaited Robotaxi event.

🏆 Everything changed on November 5th when Trump was declared the winner of the US election. To put into perspective what a game changer this was for Musk, take a look at Tesla’s stock chart. Without the post-election gains Tesla would be ending the year up a measly +1.2%.

🤯 With the election gains? An incredible +73.7%.

4) 📈 Bitcoin ETFs Approved and Bitcoin Crosses $100K

🏆 The other biggest winner of the Trump victory? Bitcoin - with Trump promising de-regulation and to make America the ‘crypto capital of the world’.

👀 But Trump wasn’t the only thing going for crypto this year.

👨‍⚖️ In January, the Bitcoin Spot ETF was approved by the SEC, a huge win in making cryptocurrency more accessible and opening up the door for more institutional capital. In July, the Ethereum Spot ETF was approved as well.

💰 Since then, Bitcoin ETFs have grown to over $115B in assets under management, collectively holding 1.1M BTC - or 5.6% of Bitcoin’s total maximum supply.

🎯 All these factors led to Bitcoin passing a historic milestone on December 5, when it crossed $100,000 for the first time. Bitcoin has since fallen back down to ~$95,000 but is still ending the year with an impressive 115% growth.

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TOP STORIES OF 2024
📈 Stock Market Rewind Continued

5) 🔔 Reddit IPOs and Surges 277%

Jumping back to earlier in the year, another massive story was the IPO of Reddit ($RDDT), which marked the 4th largest US stock market debut of 2024 and the first social media to go public since Pinterest in 2019.

Reddit’s IPO was interesting and unique by itself - with the company selecting 75,000 power users to purchase shares at its IPO based on their “karma” scores. And those who did invest were rewarded greatly, with Reddit ending the year 277% above its initial IPO price.

But the real reason Reddit makes this list is that the IPO marked a turning point in the market for IPOs after a sluggish few years since 2021’s record-setting numbers:

  • 2021: 1,035 IPOs

  • 2022: 181 IPOs

  • 2023: 154 IPOs

  • 2024: 224 IPOs

While still a far cry away from 2021, the 45% increase is a clear sign the IPO market is recovering signaling, renewed investor confidence.

6) 🐱 Roaring Kitty Returns

No 2024 list would be complete without the insane saga back in May when a tweet from the infamous Roaring Kitty (who triggered the GameStop hype back in 2020/21), sent GameStop flying up 200% before crashing back down to earth.

Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal took this as a signal that markets are “frothy and potentially peaking,” and while this turned out not to be true - with the S&P 500 rising another 12.6% since then - it at least reminded us of the dangers of FOMO’ing into random meme stocks with little to no fundamental value based on a random tweet.

7) 💸 TD Money Laundering

Last but not least - a little Canadian bonus for #7 - was TD Bank, which blindsided investors by becoming the first bank in US history to plead guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering after criminals laundered $653M through the bank, even bribing tellers with gift cards.

TD not only faced massive reputational damage from the scandal, but they were also hit with a rare asset cap, and their merger with First Horizon bank was blocked - dealing a major blow to the company’s US expansion plans.

As a result, the stock is down 11% this year - while competitors like RBC and Scotiabank are up +20-30%.

🐝 What a year we’ve had! A huge thank you to everyone who’s tuned into the Weekly Buzz. I hope you’ve enjoyed reading as much as I’ve enjoyed writing! 😊 

🎆 I hope you all have an incredible New Year, and I’ll see you in 2025, when there’ll no doubt be more big stock market stories to cover 🫡

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